This was my big event: the SMF hosting a talk with Vince, me and Michael White of the Guardian, chaired by Ian Mulheirn. I loved it! And the SMF filmed it, so my Mum can get to love it some other time.
I have about 10 minutes left on this computer, so really hurried thoughts:
My take was classically liberal.
1Yes, the state has a big role right now propping up demand (on related note: see this excellent summary in a comment by ValueThinker about why this made sense last year). But the Lefties hoping that this will herald a permanent larger role for the State in the economy are deluded – and despite Darling making the right call last year (unlike Osborne, see many posts passim), the whole episode is a sign of failure. we don’t want to be continuously reliant on the State making the right fiscal call.
2. Banks: use their innovation for clever things like retirement lump sum management not tax avoidance. Banks can really add value – and we are not as reliant on banking or financial services as some figures suggset (Liam Halligan yesterday ludicrously put it as 25% – not it is about 8%, and only half is the City, and not all of that is banking – legal, accountancy, markets – all different. LH clearly had dared himself to call the Lib Dems’ “yoghurt Munchers’ to their faces: I look forward to watching him screw up his market call on YouTube, see comments to previous post)
3. Manufacturing – don’t make a fetish of it – LT environmental issues demand less manufacturing one day – the Germans had to go through huge austerity to get into their leading position – etc. And China can catch up because – Solow growth model – it’s earlier down the curve.
4. No picking winners (like the MSFT guy earlier in the day urging the govt to support gaming). But support the conditions for growth, and let the flowers bloom. Govt would not have thought of or imagined the Internet. Don’t make the BIG mistakes – look at Argentina versus Korea since 1950. Openness – a great liberal theme – is the grand dividing factor between growing over 40 years and Not. Flattered us all about the founding myths of this Great Party.
Vince went on longer: repeated a lot of stuff about regulating pay and bankers more. Michael White was very entertaining – I’ll have to refer to the TV recording for his anecdotes. John Harris of the Guardian asked Vince how he would restrict bankers pay if they kept threatening to go overseas – I got a laugh with my reply about how boring Geneva was, how they ban you from flushing the loo after 10pm (Michael White chiming in with speculations about what they might be flushing away). Lots of fun Q&A, but because MW had got lost in the carpark, we had less time than I wanted.
Oh, and a question from Somerset about whether we should try to be like France. I speculated aloud about what the Act of Parliament making us like the French would look like – several pages for Boulangeries. Generally agreed that France was a good but inimitable place. In fact, only problem with the event was the lack of real dispute. Would definitely want to listen to Michael White again. For Vince, it was the 12th event THAT DAY.
I loved it – definitely want to do more of this stuff.
Work restarts. The Bank has released its minutes. Duncan has written an excellent blog about 1976 and all that which makes me need to buy yet another book on that (Healey’s own biog was excellent). The FT is full of stuff. – including questioning whether the Lib Dems are really interested in power. The IMF is talking about the long term scars of banking crises, and the wealthy are still getting wealthier. And Aditya’s Brain food
has come out.