Stephanie Flanders has a long discussion of how much of a shock it is.
Simon Ward is (typically) hawish, calling for more rate hikes.
But the most interesting view comes from an unpublished private note from Jamie Dannhauser of Lombard, who urges people not to be fooled by the shock, and identifies one-offs like the VAT rise, petrol prices (the petrol price sub-index is up 25%), and most interestingly motor vehicle prices, rising by 9% on the year, despite “the collapse in the demand for cars as credit availability has shrunk”. Cars alone make the headline rate of inflation 0.5% higher, and 2nd hand cars are up 16% on the year. He finds that this may be because of (a) sterling and (b) people undersupplying the 2nd hand market partly because of the scrappage scheme. Taking these effects out, the index looks much weaker.
But. If cars had been cheaper, consumers might have bought something else, pushing the other index up, surely? I appreciate this may be a one-off. But it reminds me of one-offs that keep happening …