Amazing fact from Hamish McRae’s column:

the individual components of growth this first quarter are surprising. Government output added nothing – it was flat, having either been flat or falling for the previous five quarters. Construction was down on the previous quarter. Hotels and restaurants were down too. Manufacturing was up, but as we have seen, from a low base. So what was the largest contributor to growth? Business and financial services. So we have a recovery led by the reviled financial sector, while the Government has not been a net contributor to growth for the past 18 months.

Repeat, repeat until your tongue is sore: this recession has not seen a Keynesian spending splurge ….Which for me rather negates the impact of this ad hominem letter to the FT:

Whatever the solution may be, it is not more consumer or government spending, lower savings, and higher personal debt. In short, it isn’t Keynsianism.

I love it when people announce their conclusions.

The FT explains the ‘balancing act’ of future fiscal policy as well as anyone, in today‘s leader:

Without growth, fiscal austerity would be excruciating. Even the most hawkish of governments would lose its nerve. So while the next government should unveil measures to cut the structural budget deficit, it should, at the same time, announce plans that it would deploy if the recovery were to be weaker (or stronger) than expected. That way, the authorities can respond appropriately if growth is sub-par without shocking bond investors with an unanticipated stimulus.

This echoes what I wrote for House magazine a month or so ago:  “What the bond markets need to hear is a commitment to prudent behaviour in the good times, not vicious austerity regardless of the economic weather”.

Matthew Engel in the FT reflects on John Bercow’s campaign, and comes out with this interesting ‘Smell the Coffee’ insight:

The anti-immigrant, anti-establishment, roast-beef-of-old-England aspects of Ukip’s message have some resonance. But I don’t think I’ve heard a voter raise Europe on the doorstep to a candidate this century. Brussels to the British has become like the weather: a perpetual irritant, but something you live with.

Now from the FT about tax avoidance

Probes into the tax affairs of large companies generated £12.6bn of additional tax in the last four years, making big business the most profitable target for the Revenue’s compliance effort, according to figures that will fuel the debate over the Liberal Democrats’ promise to raise big sums from cracking down on avoidance.

Though later in the article, the scepticism about their numbers comes out.   Finally, this from Smith, for you “public sector taking over the private” loonies.

One of the big fears is about jobs, an area where there is a lot of misunderstanding. On the face of it, the only thing that has stopped a much bigger rise in unemployment than the current 2.5m (widely expected to be 3m or 3.5m) has been public-sector employment, up nearly 350,000 to 6.1m during the recession, while private-sector jobs have declined by some 1m to 22.76m. Two-thirds of the apparent rise in public-sector employment, however, is the reclassification of employees of state-aided banks such as RBS and Lloyds from private to public sectors. Adjusting for this gives a more modest rise in public-sector jobs and somewhat less of a private-sector fall.

And he smacks down Ken in the nicest way possible:

Kenneth Clarke is one of my favourite politicians and I have never really seen him as an attack dog. I am prepared to believe, when he warned a hung parliament could mean Britain calling in the IMF, it was with a twinkle in his eye. He was in the Commons in the 1970s and knows that when Britain did call in the IMF in 1976 we did not have a hung parliament and that the balance-of-payments support Britain required then is not needed now. Economic crises in Britain are no respecter of majorities. Sometimes, as in 1931, a coalition government was the political solution to the crisis.

Advertisements

7 thoughts on “Notable paragraphs, somewhat economic

  1. “Government has not been a net contributor to growth for the past 18 months”

    I don’t quite understand that. If you look at “General Government: Final consumption expenditure” at end Q4 2009 it was £73bn, up from £70.8bn at the end of Q3 2008. That’s not a huge amount, something like 3%. But you’d think that was a positive factor?

  2. Gosh you mean all that government spending you have been pushing isn’t doing any good & what “green shoots2 we have are in the private sector & despite, not because of the political parasites. Who would have thunk it?

    1. It means that if the govt had not run out of money too soon, and been able to support the economy as much as, say, Obama has, the recession might have been shallower. Pick your counterfactual …

  3. Biggest laugh this morning was on the Times online. During discussion of the fact that most Western democracies had proportional representation, and were therefore used to consensual politics, it came out that apparently Greece is one of the few which has a two party system!

    So why on earth are the Tories bleating away about hung parliaments being bad? Bad for them yes, but perhaps better for the rest of us. Another Tory own goal?

  4. “Do they mean in real terms” – those figures are in real terms. I think there must be a distinction between government spending and ‘government and other services’ which is the GDP line.
    ——

    “Gosh you mean all that government spending you have been pushing isn’t doing any good & what “green shoots2 we have are in the private sector & despite, not because of the political parasites. Who would have thunk it?”

    It doesn’t mean this at all, does it? GDP accounting of government spending assumes inputs=outputs, and so its contribution to growth is the same as its amount. I don’t think you can tell anything about its success in mitigating the recession from that?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s