If you like mucking around with seat possibilities, the spreadsheet is here, with an extra Bell and Whistle.
The idea behind it is that
- clearly a uniform swing doesn’t work now
- but two uniform swings (Labour – Con, Labour-Libdem) also fail to capture the possibility of some tactical voting
So in my machine, you can type in 12 swings. Yes, 12! Each seat is categorised according to who came first and who came second (I’m holding others steady. Sorry, Scotsmen). The user can then put in a LC or LL swing in each. You can see the result of your tinkering on the right, in terms of seats and how many fell from X to Y.
The point is to show how tactical considerations may make a HUGE difference. Consider the scenario I have left there called “Labour easily largest 29.5%”. In this, the result is:
Con % vote 35.12%
Lab % vote 29.40%
LD % vote 28.21%
Conservative seats 238
Labour seats 282
Lib Dem seats 94
Now look at Tactical Anti Labour Voting
Con % vote 37.13%
Lab % vote 29.07%
LD % vote 26.54%
Conservative seats 295
Labour seats 237
Lib Dem seats 82
In terms of national vote share, we get a tremble, but an entirely different outcome for Parliament.
I have also penned in two scenarios where the LibDem vote is wasted and where it is not. We are in incredibly volatile times – and the overall exit poll will tell you nothing, until you start getting actual seat results.
Please, if you get any interesting scenarios you want to share, just add a comment here. 12 numbers is all you need …