They have called it Labour -12, Con +5 but compare:

the 2005 result to

what has just been announced.

The Con share of the vote is down from 22.5% to 21.4%.

Am I missing something? Why are the professors calling this a 8pc swing to the Tories?

UPDATE: What I think they have done is put all the BNP and UKIP gains into the Tory pot

UPDATE 2: There were significant boundary changes, apparently (see Nate Silver). BBC still extrapolating like lunatics on this subject.

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