From Matthew T’s site, a chap who adds high quality comments to this one.

I think research into this area could fuel a few phD theses, on the subject of whether the Conservatives face a secular fall in their safe vote.  Reflect on the fact that they did better under Major, during a recession, after 13 years in power, than they did against Brown in a recession, with eloquent Cameron in charge, and with none of the mud of rulership spattered to their coat*.

If anyone wants to start the PhD now, the Guardian has the data. The LSE’s Election Experts – which occasionally includes Tim Leunig, whom you will know here – has a fascinating looking table showing Power scores compared to votes and seats.

Finally, on the subject of People Who Comment Intelligently Here, Ben Chu of the Indie has Four reasons for the Lib Dems to be cheerful.  They are all quite right.   It has led me to the thought: was Cleggmania bad for our mental health?  Pre April, I would have been reasonably happy with 23% of the vote, mildly sad about 57 seats, and over the moon about the balance of power and Conservative self-questioning disaffection.

*yes, the ugliest metaphor I have ever used

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6 thoughts on “Fascinating disaggregation of the 1992-2010 Tory vote fall

  1. I would expect Clegg to have thrown himself from St Stephen’s tower if the Lib Dems got 57 votes (not having a pass allowing him access to the Clock or Victoria towers). I think you meant ‘seats’ 🙂

  2. Another reason to be tentatively confident is if (and admittedly, that’s still a big if) the economy recovers. Because, as this layman understands it, public approval of politicians tends to have some relation to economic progress (or at least the public’s perception of the economy). Here, at least, is an example from the US:

    http://www.themonkeycage.org/2010/02/the_economy_structures_everyth.html

    If it’s true in the UK to some extent, then any deal the Lib Dems do that puts them in, or associates them with, the government, could be a boost (or at least counteracts any anti-Lab/anti-Tory sentiment) in a year or two.

    Big if though.

    1. Reading that back makes me look silly. Obviously if the economy recovers, that’s good in and of itself. But there could be political, and therefore policy, benefits too.

      1. That blog has one of the greatest quotes of all time beneath its heading.

  3. Yep. One of the greatest quotes of all… but along with about half a zillion other quotes said by other various wiseacres through history.

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