From Matthew T’s site, a chap who adds high quality comments to this one.
I think research into this area could fuel a few phD theses, on the subject of whether the Conservatives face a secular fall in their safe vote. Reflect on the fact that they did better under Major, during a recession, after 13 years in power, than they did against Brown in a recession, with eloquent Cameron in charge, and with none of the mud of rulership spattered to their coat*.
If anyone wants to start the PhD now, the Guardian has the data. The LSE’s Election Experts – which occasionally includes Tim Leunig, whom you will know here – has a fascinating looking table showing Power scores compared to votes and seats.
Finally, on the subject of People Who Comment Intelligently Here, Ben Chu of the Indie has Four reasons for the Lib Dems to be cheerful. They are all quite right. It has led me to the thought: was Cleggmania bad for our mental health? Pre April, I would have been reasonably happy with 23% of the vote, mildly sad about 57 seats, and over the moon about the balance of power and Conservative self-questioning disaffection.
*yes, the ugliest metaphor I have ever used