Orange tinted policies

Both from the Orange Book and recent acclaimed CentreForum publications you can see the real influence of proper liberal views influencing policy. Look at the Coalition agreement: The Royal Mail agreement – keeping Post Offices as they are, allowing the Royal Mail itself to have private investment – is rather similar to what Vince calledContinue reading “Orange tinted policies”

Rebalancing quietly taking place …

Well, what is this all about?  The trend in the gilt market: Recall two pieces of conventional wisdom.  One, the end of QE spelt doom to gilts.  Take away that one big sucker-buyer and they will fall out of bed*.  Two, if there’s a hung parliament, the great British Politician will spend months and monthsContinue reading “Rebalancing quietly taking place …”

So I get things wrong sometimes …

… or at least, that may be how things look soon if inflation continues doing what it has just done – rise faster than expected.  Because while my original points about base effects and so on are correct, it is no good if the actual index rises 0.6 points in a month like this.  PerhapsContinue reading “So I get things wrong sometimes …”

If I were much, much brighter I would write posts like these …

James Hamilton has somehow worked out how much the higher oil prices of recent months might affect the US economy.  You can’t be purely mechanistic about it – the hit to disposable incomes caused by having to send $$$s abroad – but also look at consumer shifts, caused by asymetric reactions to oil price changes. Continue reading “If I were much, much brighter I would write posts like these …”

Krugman to the Fed: proof that you can spring the liquidity trap

I’m not calling for Bernanke to go. But the debate about his reappointment reminds us just how much a single appointment can change financial conditions, on day one.